The Nativity Story is a movie with obviously huge appeal to Christians and families. Family/Christmas movies do well at this time of year, even the generic crap like Christmas with the Kranks and Santa Clause 3. Also, several Christian-themed films have performed well recently, in addition to the obvious mega-blockbuster, the Passion of the Christ.
General Pros: The birth of Christ is the biggest, most important, and revered Christian story next to the crucifixion/resurrection. There is huge appeal in the heartland and Bible Belt, which are undertracked by conventional measures. This movie seems to have even stronger appeal to Catholics than Protestants, especially with the Vatican's approval, as it was the first film to ever premiere at the Vatican. The movie is getting good Christian reviews and backing, with support from public figures.
Final theater counts were released, and there was a very strong upwards surprise, with initially 2,800 theaters expected, and a 383 theater boost to 3,183 (normally, movies get bumped around 100 or less). Also, initially thought to be on only one screen per theater, it will be on 2 screens in many of the big multiplexes, and playing on the biggest screen of each theater. This results in a relatively high screen count, and a very low per-theater-average needed for this kind of film.
General Cons: By normal measures, there is little buzz, low online indicators, and low advance sales. There is little controversy and little media attention compared to the Passion. It's probably not as compelling to Christians as the Passion, and to some may look more like a bigger budget version of a church play. It's getting poor mainstream reviews (although at 53 Metacritic and 26% RT, it's far better than Deck the Halls' 28/8%, Kranks' 22/4%, or Santa Clause 3's 32/12%, all of which performed reasonably well for the genre), and is perhaps boring to some.
Counterarguments: People comparing Nativity to Passion are crazy. Passion had one of the higest openings of all time, and was one of the biggest box office surprises in history. It had a 28k PTA, and we're not looking for anything even remotely close to that. Nativity can do 1/6th of that and still go Over. So of course Nativity's buzz is nowhere in the same ballpark as Passion's. You need to compare it to whether it can relatively match or beat the small Christian films, but in more theaters, as well as compare it to mediocre films that did in the teens, where Nativity's 14.5 line is.
For marketing, there appears to be little campaigning, but most people on the forums aren't being targeted, so people have not seen many ads. For example, I haven't seen almost any, watching normal TV. But last night, watching the Rockefeller Center Christmas special, there were 5 different spots for Nativity in that 1 hr show alone. So the marketing is probably just much more specifically targeted. Give New Line a little credit at being able to market, as they did successfully push some of the biggest movies of all time in the LOTR series. And it's not like they're dumping this movie, but quite the opposite, with enough faith in it to push it into several hundred more theaters, for a large 3.2k theater count.
Expectations/Predictions: All Christian movies have been underestimated. The Passion was predicted to be a big movie, in the $40-45 mil 3-day weekend range (perhaps $70's for the 5-day), which is obviously huge for February. It came in at about twice those estimates, with an $83.8 mil 3-day and $125.2 mil 5-day. That is freaking enormous, when the expectations were already high.
Then, just this year, some smaller Christian movies were released. You'd think that they wouldn't be underestimated, after Passion's huge surprise. But no, they far outperformed expectations. End of the Spear did 2x-4x as much as projections, and was underestimated by almost all website predictors and posters. One Night with the King came in ahead by 1.4-1.7x expectations and was 1.8-2.0x ahead of predictions.
If you're thinking, "what are these movies," then that's exactly the point. They performed well due to their Christian base, when the mainstream barely even knows what they were. So people are still underestimating Christian films, and anyone predicting the Nativity will probably be give a lower estimate than the actual gross ends up being. And almost all major site predictors except one are already predicting an opening in the mid-to-high teens, well above the line (and even the one exception is an Over when you factor in the theater count upgrade). The consensus of 6 major site predictions is $16.7 mil (and $18.8 mil if matched to the upgraded tc). So the real figures should actually go above those estimates, but they could even be 13-23% less, and still go over the line.
Comps: A full list of Christian films and their PTA's follows below. The ones from just this year, End of the Spear and One Night with the King had 4.3k and 4.1k PTA's. Both were Christian movies with no previous awareness. Movies with a prior base, such as Veggie Tales and Omega Code, had 6-8k PTA's, which is pretty large. All of these were in far fewer theaters, around 1k or less, but with one of the most important Christian stories of all time, Nativity should be able to meet or exceed these PTA's, even in more theaters, just due to their base. Also, Nativity will be on the biggest screen of almost all theaters it is in, whereas these smaller movies were at the bottom of the order, in the smallest theaters.
Passion of the Christ, R, 2/25/04, $83.8 open ($125.2 5-day), 3.0k tc, $27.6k PTA
Chronicles of Narnia, PG, 12/9/05, $65.6 open, 3.6k tc, $18.1k PTA
Jonah: Veggie Tales, G, 10/4/02, $6.2 open, 0.9k tc, $6.6k PTA
End of the Spear, PG-13, 1/20/06, $4.3 open, 1.2k tc, $3.7k PTA
One Night with the King, PG, 10/13/06, $4.1 open, 0.9k tc, $4.5k PTA
Facing the Giants, PG, 9/29/06, $1.3 open, 0.4k tc, $3.0k PTA
Omega Code, PG-13, 10/15/99, $2.4 open, 0.3k tc, $7.7k PTA
Omega Code 2, PG-13, 10/21/01, $1.6 open, 0.3k tc, $5.0k PTA
Left Behind, PG-13, 2/2/01, $2.2 open, 0.9k tc, $2.5k PTA
Gospel of John, PG-13, 10/26/03, $0.1 open, 14 theaters, $7.0k PTA
Line analysis: With the huge +383 theater count, and a line of $14.5 mil, Nativity only needs a 4.56k PTA. That's just above the small Christian films referenced above, and far lower than the Christian movies that have a following where people know the stories. So we have to think that the story of the birth of Christ will have a much wider draw than any of the above movies, and I think it will do a higher PTA, even in a wider release in many more theaters. If it even comes close to matching the 6-8k PTA draw that the movies with a base did, that would obliterate the line and come in the very high teens and low 20's.
You can also compare it to moderate movies recently released. Their audiences are very different, but the drawing amount may be similar or better. The 4.6k PTA needed for Nativity is far lower than most medium performers this fall, such as Prestige at 6.5k, Flags at 5.5k, Guardian at 5.6k, Fearless at 5.9k, Santa Clause 3 at 5.6k, Stranger than Fiction at 5.9k, Deja Vu at 6.6k, etc. Even Man of the Year got a 4.9k PTA.
Play: The Over 14.5 at high +odds is a great wager. Odds and usual indicators suggest it will go Under, so I wouldn't be completely surprised, but it's at least a 50-50 play imo (and personally think it's 2-1 to go Over). So getting any +odds is good, and getting the high +odds available right now is fantastic. I'm predicting an opening in the high-teens, even if churches are not mass-pushing it, and it could be in the 20's if they are. I got in at Pinny, getting near 2-1 odds on Over 14.5, and think that the current +180 is still a great play. In fact, I'd take it at any +odds, and think that the line is heavily underweighted due to most people not understanding the base and rationale behind this movie.
4* The Nativity Story Over 14.5
YTD Movie Record:
12-6, 31-11 weighted (*'s), +120.3 units
